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Confidence Evidence Bank

TAIU

Somewhere to keep what you have actually done, for the days you cannot remember it.

Builds a record of what has already been done, for use on the days it is not believed.

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Self-efficacy: toward a unifying theory of behavioural change

Albert Bandura

If you have ever described yourself as not a confident person, read this and then rewrite the sentence with a context attached. The result is usually much more accurate and much more useful.

The paper that broke confidence into pieces. Bandura's argument is that belief in your capability is built for a specific domain, mostly out of things you have already done, and that it transfers far less than people assume. That is why a person can chair a board and dread a party without either being a contradiction. It also names the strongest source of confidence, which is not encouragement but mastery experience.

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Peak

Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool

Best for when the honest answer is that you need practice rather than belief.

Ericsson spent his career studying how people become genuinely good at things, and the answer is boringly specific: structured practice at the edge of your current ability, with feedback. It belongs here as a corrective. Where an exercise finds that low confidence is an accurate reading of a real gap, this describes what closing the gap actually involves, and it is not a mindset.

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Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

Why confidence and accuracy aren't the same thing.

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The trouble with overconfidence

Don Moore and Paul Healy

Best for checking whether your confidence is calibrated to anything.

Moore and Healy separate three things people muddle together: overestimating your ability, overplacing yourself relative to others, and being too certain you are right. The useful part is their finding that people tend to be overconfident on hard tasks and underconfident on easy ones, which predicts exactly the pattern where somebody is falsely modest about what they do daily and dangerously certain about what they have never done.